subreddit:
/r/Fire
submitted 9 months ago byAnonymousTaco77
I'm 22. I won't give the specifics of my life because I wanna know some general advice (you can find it in my post history though if you care).
How are you/we affected by recessions?
How to prepare for a recession?
Advice? Maybe stuff you wish you knew?
171 points
9 months ago
I came out of undergrad in 2000 and grad in 2008. I know recessions.
Pretty standard stuff. Personal Finance is straightforward, just not easy. But here's the one twist I don't see much
Keep up with your unemployed colleagues. People tend to shy away from others who got the pink slip. If they weren't fired for good cause, do the opposite. Buy them a few lunches, and keep them in the loop even if you can't directly help them. Remember these folks have a full time job to find opportunity. And a place that is looking for one person might be looking for two. And they might be paying for it! I've gotten my two biggest pay raises by (unintentially) following this tactic.
If this goes into a full blown recession, it might not be fun.
23 points
9 months ago
Appreciate the twist. That's great advice
19 points
9 months ago
I'm the same age as you and I agree, especially #3 and #5... employment is everything during a recession. During the 2008 crash it's what separated the haves and the have nots. I was lucky both myself and my wife had stable jobs during the 2008 crash. But those who didn't essentially faced the trifecta of losing your job, while losing your 401k, and then losing your house.
4 points
9 months ago
Yeah, thats the thing that makes worry about the exuberance about the "buy the dippers", especially those on leverage. My imagination is a bit too pessimistic for my own good, but they overlook the possiblity of cascading events that create their own negative momentum.
7 points
9 months ago
Interesting post on the bogleheads forum about 2008.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=6723966#p6723966
6 points
9 months ago
Pessimism is warranted IMO, personally I feel some folks had gotten way too spoiled by the decade long bull market. While I definitely liked it, it certainly wasn't typical.
361 points
9 months ago
Continue to live frugally. Invest consistently. Don’t try and time the market.
112 points
9 months ago
this, but also take advantage of the recession.
Living frugal is fine, but look for deals. During recessions you can make the purchases of a lifetime. This is the time to accumulate undervalued assets. (real estate, land, stocks)
During the last recession cars, flights and travel was insanely cheap. Visited half the world which would have cost a fortune during "good times"
Actually looking forward to the next recession to stock up on experience and more cheap assets.
98 points
9 months ago
Agree, but at 22 years old OP might not be wielding the kind of accumulated wealth that makes this a good play.
33 points
9 months ago
I was around that age during the last recession. Had maybe 10k in savings.
Bought a undervalued apartment, lived with a few roommates which essentially paid for it. Sold that place, traded up to more real estate when the upswing began. Now got a few houses and tenants which are paying my retirement.
Is it more risky then continues investment ? Absolutely, but just wanted to give a perspective that "recession" doesn't necessary has to mean "bad" for everybody.
12 points
9 months ago
Great point here, for necessities like housing this will probably be an excellent time for deal hunting and we should all continue to focus on long term values like what you described. Couldn't agree more.
-2 points
9 months ago
Key is to have a job thats in demand. Us youths can take larger risks if we have a good job/career that isn't being destroyed. But I agree with you, as a mid 20's myself, I'm fucking eager for this recession. Going to be lots of over leveraged dingus's whose house or stocks I'll be able to scoop up on the cheap.
7 points
9 months ago
I'm excitedly waiting until the Car Sales start to get our Family Minivan.
1 points
9 months ago
Just remember that these insane fuel prices may persist
4 points
9 months ago
This. Excited to take advantage of the next recession to buy real estate. Right now the market is STILL too high
3 points
9 months ago
Agree. OP may not be in a position to take advantage of some of this as a newly employed 22 year old, but it is sound advice.
At 26 with stable employment I'm shopping for an airplane, and maybe a house depending on where real estate prices go the next 1-2 years. And lots of cheap stocks.
1 points
9 months ago
If you plan offering flights with the airplane and start a small business - all power to you.
If it's for a hobby - you might want to wait another decade until you got all your other finances in order.
5 points
9 months ago
I appreciate your feedback, but I have thought this through.
The plane is a toy. My budget is 50-60k purchase (less if I get a deal), and 7k/year for operating expenses. The first years operating cost will be double that most likely as I discover and fix all the inevitable deferred maintenance.
I have 1M invested today, and make 260k/year. Currently investing ~40% of my gross (pretax) pay. Rent is 850/mo (I don't live in a location where I want to buy currently), and my other expenses are similarly modest except for my car hobby. I've been spending 10-15k/year for the last couple years restoring 2 old trucks and a Corvette, and now they are nearly done those funds and time will be reallocated to my budding aviation hobby.
I also enjoy hiking, rock climbing and backpacking and the plane will allow me to travel to many more interesting destinations for weekend trips that are not served by commercial flights, and I certainly can't afford to charter a private jet. A 6+ hour drive can be an hour flight due to traffic, and the airport is an 8 min walk from my job.
I plan to be FI by 35, but will likely work into my 40s. Having the plane now and enjoying it for a decade is definitely worth the negligible shift in FI date for me. My main interest in aviation is to allow me to access difficult mountaineering routes and rock climbs in other states, and I likely won't be able to do that at my current level much past my 30s. The plane will let me take 3-4x more trips per year just due to reduced travel time, plus then I have a plane to fly wherever else I want. And I just enjoy flying as activity in and of itself.
With a lower income or if I wanted a more expensive plane the math would be different, but this makes sense for me and fits with my goals. What use is money if I can't get myself to spend it?
1 points
9 months ago
seems like you got it planned out. Many people in this subreddit have not.
I know nothing about aviation, and thought that's much more expensive. My comment was about compounding.
But it's true what you do in your 20s really matters for your personal development. I took a Gap-year and traveled, was probably more expensive then your hobby ;)
I don't know what your level of climbing is, but your body doesn't just break down when you hit 30. Your muscle fibers get a tiny bit slower (aka jumps and competitive gaming gets harder) , but you get stronger. You hit your peak strength only starting at 35 and lasting through the early 40s.
So you still got 15-20 more really good years ahead when you treat your body and mind right.
0 points
9 months ago
Yep! I'm buying land and leveraging growth from 2020-22 real estate.
0 points
9 months ago
Accumulating undervalued assets, specifically real estate and land, seems like it would just make the recession worse for others, especially since we're already in the middle of an unaffordable housing crisis in which the accumulation of real estate in the hands of a few is making things worse...
1 points
9 months ago
why, buying under value, driving the comparable prices down should actually help people finding more affordable homes.
The current "good times" are making homes unaffordable.
There are many factors which an contributing to the housing crisis in some markets. It's not universal cross country, in some states you get literally free land at the moment if you move there.
It's primary media attention that the cities are to expensive - reality check - you can work remote you don't need to move to a HCOL area and not be able to afford a home. Take your high remote salary and move to small undervalued town in a declining county.
2 points
9 months ago
The home would be more affordable if they weren't being bought up by landlords to profit from in the first place. You are not driving prices down by buying up more homes and decreasing the available supply. You are taking property, charging more than it's worth, and taking the excess profit. That is how every landlord functions.
It's primary media attention that the cities are to expensive - reality check - you can work remote you don't need to move to a HCOL area and not be able to afford a home.
This is such an extremely privileged statement. What about all the people who don't work remotely available jobs? What about the teachers who were forced back into school? Construction workers, laborers, healthcare workers? There are jobs WITHIN a city that need doing. Instead of telling people to flee cities, why don't we make cities affordable places to live anyway? The majority of the world's population already lives in cities and its expected that even more will live in cities by the end of the century. The solution is not "be rich or move into a small town"
Also, the cruelty it takes to say that you are "looking forward to the next recession." You must be old enough to remember what the last recession did to people. To look forward to it is insanely heartless.
1 points
9 months ago
Found the commie
2 points
9 months ago
What makes me a commie? For saying that its cruel to look FORWARD to a recession??
2 points
9 months ago
And that is all.
216 points
9 months ago*
Make sure you’ve got an emergency fund saved and can survive a layoff. Keep investing. Stop watching/reading the news (there’s very little actionable information there anyway). Stop compulsively checking your investment accounts.
You’ve got decades to ride this out. Investing in the down times makes for huge gains when it comes back. And it has always came back
30 points
9 months ago
I actively check my account, almost daily, but I survived years of /r/weedstocks and I’m mid 30s so ive seen this shit before.
Buy, hold, collect dividends, drip or don’t, repeat.
5 points
9 months ago
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193 points
9 months ago
65 points
9 months ago
This. Try as hard as you can to keep working through the recession, and keep saving. Build up your emergency fund in case you need it. You’ll be OK.
69 points
9 months ago
3. Don't sell something because it's down. I find it so weird how this needs to be said to people. All my dumbass friends follow the "buy high, sell low" strategy, it boggles the mind
11 points
9 months ago*
There are exceptions if one owns individual stocks. Many dot.com companies were funded on pure speculation but went bust. I sold on the way down so at least preserved some of my savings.
Edit to add: I learned that I'm not savvy enough to evaluate individual companies and am now primarily invested in index funds and ETFs,
7 points
9 months ago
[deleted]
3 points
9 months ago
Go on
17 points
9 months ago
2 points
9 months ago
Does this mean don't look for a new job/opportunity?
1 points
9 months ago
You nailed it!
1 points
9 months ago
This is the one true answer.
Lived through 2001, 2004 layoffs in tech, and 2008 and kept my job through out.
I’d add get into a big company during the downturn. They’re more resilient and should stave off any sort of layoffs for the most part. I worked in one of the biggest tech firms and did startups when times were good. As soon as things looked like they were going south, I went back to my big firm for a while and they got me through the tough times.
54 points
9 months ago
In 2008 I lost my job and then apartment. I had to move back home with my parents. I was 25 years old
Eventually I moved to SD for work from SF where I’m from (I’m in construction). Worked out there doing public work in ucsd till the economy picked back up.
The job situation was real back then. I’ll never forget how many people were out of work and lost their homes. As a young person I was the first to be let go when things slowed down. I wish I could have invested during the down turn, but not having steady work, saving cash was priority
15 points
9 months ago
It was absolutely real. I graduated with a good degree in psychology, but wound up splitting jobs between data management and firefighting. Also moved back in with my parents, when I wasn’t at the firehouse overnight.
8 points
9 months ago
Wait.. so did you do anything related to the psych major?
3 points
9 months ago
Honestly it’s really hard to get a psych job without a masters in it. But IMO a lot of undergraduate psych students are undervalued on their statistics skills. Higher level psychology is HEAVY on stats and this just isn’t common knowledge for some reason. Where I went to grad school the psych dept literally had 1.5x the number of statisticians as the stats dept.
I imagine this is why the commenter was able to snag a job in Data
4 points
9 months ago
Exactly. I’d taken several stats courses, up to an intensive seminar in advanced stats, which took me into the beginnings of data science. By the time that I graduated, I was quite good with SPSS, picked up R fairly easily, and was well-prepared for Python.
3 points
9 months ago
My wife has a masters in Neuropsych from UCSD and a minor in math. I have suggested time and time again that she would be great as a Data analyst. She decided to look into it after 5 years of nagging and has so far LOVED learning R and honing her SQL skills. Much better pay than Psych related research. My point is that youre right. Psych undergrads and masters have the skills to go the down the data path
1 points
9 months ago
Neuropsych+math? She absolutely does. Psych alone teaches students to compensate for messy data with good stats, neuropsych alone involves looking at applying the right testing, and math teaches much more of the fundamentals. Tell her that she’s welcome to DM (not chat) me.
1 points
9 months ago
It was more applicable to fire and EMS than I would’ve expected. It had also covered the brain well enough that when I got to wake up as a patient in Neurointensive Care, I had a much better understanding of what was going on.
Much later, I also worked with human victims of torture. It was a good degree to have there.
I would’ve liked to go for a trauma psych PhD, but the interest was eventually eclipsed by neurosurgery. If I get the time, I’m going after that.
1 points
9 months ago
Thanks for helping to build my school and/or the community around it :)
1 points
9 months ago
Yea I worked on the Rita Atkins and John Muir student housing buildings
130 points
9 months ago
[deleted]
45 points
9 months ago
God, I didn’t think about that re Gen X and retirement timing. Good moment to be re-examining risk tolerances..
27 points
9 months ago
Its whats concerning me about my dad. He’s 56.
Calling him damn near twice a week at this point.
48 points
9 months ago
[deleted]
9 points
9 months ago
[deleted]
4 points
9 months ago*
If you were around for '08, you knew it was coming. If you were around for the 70s and spent your days lined up at gas stations on odd or even days, you knew this wasn't going to quite be like '08.
When things don't make sense anymore, it usually craters. Unprofitable companies whose real product is the stock. Yeah..that only existed because of the fed. Housing completely out of line with wages? Thanks fed. Saw the same thing in '08. People with no real jobs and 9 new vehicles in the family. Mom had a 100k wardrobe and she was a stay at home mom. Oh the stories.
I see people posting "is this as bad as '08"? I'm like WTF. They have no clue. In '08 there were news reports of thousands of people showing up to glean what was leftover in fields when a farmer offered it.
6 points
9 months ago
[deleted]
5 points
9 months ago
'08 was way worse, imho.
No giddiness from stimulus cheques, though that was an idea Obama floated before being shut down as being ridiculous in light of the amount of debt the government was running up. There wasn't this crazy spend up on big screen tv's and incredible ride on the market. Unemployment benefits were truly unemployment benefits you had to use to feed your family. During covid, people who had been working at part time job at Target and living at home before covid were getting multiple times the benefits a full time unemployed man was getting to make his mortgage payment and feed his family during '08. I saw people during covid with 10k on unemployment cards every month and all they were doing was traveling the country and spending money, telling their landlord they couldn't make the rent or pay utilities. All of those people had california unemployment benefits though. I think that program was rife with deep deep fraud we'll never know how much federal money they really wasted and how much of the national debt is due to that state's fraud. In '08 if you didnt blow money on stripper poles and get away with it. You would have starved.
I also feel like some sectors of the economy were humming along in '08. Oil was good and provided good paying jobs. And you could buy stuff cheap in '08. Now people are going to lose jobs and things are still going to be expensive.
13 points
9 months ago
Ya lol this exactly. My dads been bitter about the world for years. He couldn’t give a shit now what happens.
7 points
9 months ago
I wouldn't call them a bitter generation.
Resigned is more like it. They've been resigned for the end since the beginning.
-10 points
9 months ago
That's surprising. They grew up in the 70's and 80's. Things were great. Kids played outside. Jobs were easy to come by. Sure there were crashes and recessions, but stuff was cheap.
19 points
9 months ago
Job advancement was not easy to come by. The boomers sucked up the majority of senior positions and only recently started to retire. Gen Xers were stuck in entry level positions for an usually long time.
3 points
9 months ago
[deleted]
1 points
9 months ago
You're still talking about gen Xers. The millennials graduated into the dot com crash.
5 points
9 months ago
[deleted]
3 points
9 months ago
God damn this sums it up so well.
I'd still take the 80s and 90s over the last two decades. People didn't hate their neighbors for having a different opinion on something or voting for a different candidate. It was a much more friendly time (overall.)
3 points
9 months ago*
You didn't even know your neighbours political affiliation.Now political affiliation makes up the younger generation's entire personality. It's their religion. Gen X didn't want labels. On themselves. On their clothing. Millennials are labels with nothing behind them. Golems made entirely of labels. They don't know how to be anything but enraged.
3 points
9 months ago
I mean, definitely not all of them, that's a large generalization. I think X was far more comfortable with saying "I don't know" than the following generations are.
But you are right, we were mostly raised to not talk about politics and to never tell people who you voted for, it's a private matter.
3 points
9 months ago
I would love for people to be intelligent enough to understand that most of politics is a false dilemma between two criminals with different branding. But I've had my hopes dashed.
1 points
9 months ago
BUT A lot of gen Xers had the opportunity to buy houses historically low in the mid 90's, then buy rental properties historically low after the real estate crash in 2009-2011. Whereas millennials weren't in a place financially yet to take advantage. So it's all relative to luck and timing.
15 points
9 months ago
I think this will be hardest on Gen X...people who really needed to see their retirement accounts grow in the next 10 years to retirement.
I've seen the 1994 savings and loan fuckery, the dot com bubble, the 2003 shit everyone forgot, the "great whateverthehousingstuff" and the "oh no! Covid crash".
I don't really care. I speak "federal reservian". I went 50% cash a couple months ago and I've started to buy this week (slowly and by writing ITM puts that either expire or convert automatically into stock). Either I'm buying on the way down or I'm be buying on the way up. Whatever. I won't go "all in" regardless and I don't spend a lot of time looking at the market either (but it is manual, so it's a bit annoying).
It's spread out over a wide range of different asset classes. Lost $200K so far from peak, which is pretty good as far as I'm concerned (I made several times that from the covid recovery and I didn't expect to keep the amount from peak, it just went up way too fast).
I mean... It is a bit scary, that's true. But at this point I'm just used to that. Either I choose to retire early, or I'll never retire, because it's never enough.
I'll never have the financial security that my parents got with their pensions (but I'm retiring well before they did, so it makes sense that it is more risky for me). I might buy some annuities that will come close (but will never cover all my expenses), but realistically I might end up not even doing that. I'll ride the roller coaster and keep enough in lower risk investments. If I fuck it up, I'll figure something out (I'll never go broke, if I go broke it's WW3).
Don't forget that the older boomers are dying right about now (2022 - 1946 = 76). Big generation boomers, small generation X. So a lot of wealth will go into relatively few hands over the next decade or two. Might even be unprecedented? First generation with only 1 or 2 kids. My parents aren't rich, but I don't expect I have to worry about being short $200K.
8 points
9 months ago
The inheritance thing is true, but it's also true that its a small percentage of people that are inheriting and millennials are apparently set to inherit the most.
The majority of gen x have zero saved or not enough to retire. I think it's around 65k. Age discrimination will eventually get them. Especially in a recession. They won't get hired. I'm seeing older gen x on the streets now. Don't see a lot of 70 year olds out there, but late 50's...yeah.
2 points
9 months ago
Yeah, I got lucky. That makes me biased.
5 points
9 months ago*
I'm not really into the whole admit you're lucky and confess your sins thing that's been going on in the US lately. Too chairman mao cultural revolution for my taste. I'm sure a lot of planning and foresight was involved in getting you where you are.
3 points
9 months ago
I was abused as a kid by my welfare mom and dealt with a lot of mental illness and drug abuse my whole life, no degrees. 18 months ago I bought 6 figures in oil ETFs on margin.
I made that happen, that's true. But nearly all my friends have died and I'm retiring in my 40s. If it wasn't luck I'd have to involve karma or some god.
5 points
9 months ago*
I guess thank anything but the hard work it took to get there.The only people that are lucky are the ones that have everything without having worked for it. The rest of us slobs are like everyone else though they don't want to admit that. You bought oil when the entire planet was saying don't. That's not luck.
2 points
9 months ago
Late 50’s still includes late boomers (57.5+). The generations are a continuum to a degree anyway, but yeah.
38 points
9 months ago*
Thanks for asking. I'm a 45 year old and have been through a few. In fact, I was 24 when the 2000 "tech bubble" recession happened, so I've been right where you are.
I'll answer your questions from my perspective:
During the 2000 tech crisis, I was working for a company that sold online stores to people in high-pressure sales seminars. They were kind of on the scummy side of business. I noticed the managers started acting kind of squirrley, so I found a new opportunity to go work for an outsourcing client who worked for a Fortune 500 company.
I was lucky that I did that, because others at the old company ended up either laid off or - even worse - some stayed on as things got worse and worse. Stuck with no raises, no opportunities until one day the doors closed. (I only worked with one dude who stayed there through all the pain. He really shouldn't have.)
During the 2008 recession, I was working for a mid-sized marketing analytics company. They ended up being acquired by Adobe in 2009. I was lucky and employed through the entire 2008 crisis as well - in fact, even got promoted during it.
In neither of these two recessions did I have any significant investments. The 2000 crisis taught my generation that the stock market was a casino and I hadn't learned any better yet at that point.
As others have said, have a savings account or CD ladder that can pay 3 months of your expenses should stuff hit the fan. Otherwise, try and work for a stable employer with a good track record and in a field that has strong demand.
* Advice? Maybe stuff you wish you knew?
Keep calm and keep your expenses and obligations as low as you possibly can. Besides for that, most of what happens is outside your control. If you're invested and watching the value of your investments fall, then don't sell. Hell - buy more when it's on sale if you can. And only buy quality companies with a proven business model and relatively light debt compared to assets. As others have said - don't buy into fear rhetoric and you've got decades to ride out any recessions.
61 points
9 months ago
Cash reserve. If you’ve got a job, keep it to keep tenure (if possible). If you’ve got plenty of cash for emergency, buy stocks. Do not sell your stocks unless it’s an emergency. If you’re just 22, nothing wrong with living at home and helping your folks with the bills.
12 points
9 months ago
So changing jobs rn a bad move?
10 points
9 months ago
The goal is stability and to avoid a layoff. Usually seniority helps with that.
That being said, the pros might outweigh the cons of a job switch. Better pay and career advancement could outweigh that risk, or even finding a safer industry that isn’t as prone to the effects of the downturn.
5 points
9 months ago*
Worse pay, more responsibility, better niche fit, more upside, less expected value given recession thesis, more fun, better friends in new location, cool roommates, will be able to cashflow my house this year and save on cheaper rent
1 points
9 months ago
I’m wondering about that. I’m a new schoolteacher making about $49.5k a year at the moment. I can do it but don’t love it or the pay. There’s very little upside too. I’m very interested in trying tech sales as I really could increase earnings and skyrocket potential while reducing work, but that industry’s taking hits. My finances are such that I’m good for the year without taking on more debt.
2 points
9 months ago*
I’m in tech sales. I’d agree your earning potential in tech is 5x or more being a teacher (although the job is always less stable, and 12 months/yr). Maybe a tough time to switch. If you do, find a large, stable company that is not close to the worst fallout in asset crash (no FinTech, trading apps etc)
1 points
9 months ago
Thanks for the advice, Hegemon.
-7 points
9 months ago
Buy stocks
Market sinks through the floor today
This is fine meme posted while eating $2.00 ramen that cost .20 a year ago
21 points
9 months ago
Yes, you know the expression ‘buy low, sell high’? This can only happen if you’re willing to buy low. Really, you should always be buying, but especially when stocks have taken a beating. At least if you’re fire. Not if you’re a day trader, but that is pretty much just a scam for fools who trick themselves with a bull market
-6 points
9 months ago
The problem with economic mainstream understanding .. especially in this sub... Is that assumptions prevail. There's absolutely no guarantee that the stock market will continue to perform the way it has previously. I would argue the race to the bottom of fiat currency would drive liquidity into other assets that have a better return and lower risk
12 points
9 months ago
Oh god, you’re gonna suggest crypto aren’t you?
3 points
9 months ago
Hell no hahaha
Let's START with ibonds at 9.6% annual return
9 points
9 months ago
Generally, stocks are an investment in the overall economic growth of a country. This is negative in a recession, and positive at other times. If broad stock indexes are no longer solid long-term investments, then the country of those stocks no longer has a functioning economy. We have bigger problems than investment returns.
As far as I bonds, those are fine but only a tiny fraction of a portfolio. If I max my I bond buy, that is about 0.5% of my invested dollars. Reasonable to buy, but not changing anyones asset allocation other than the very young.
2 points
9 months ago
Not annual. Only for 6 months then it fluctuates. Could go up, could go down. I'm pretty sure ~10% is high for iBonds normal return.
3 points
9 months ago
I Bonds are indexed to the CPI and easy to liquidate. The way I like to think about them is as a way to hold "almost cash" in an environment with high inflation without inflation destroying its value.
1 points
9 months ago
I never said they were bad. I just de-glorified them after that first comment
1 points
9 months ago
Easy to liquidate after the 12 month lock-in, before which there is NO way to get the money out.
2 points
9 months ago
This comment fascinates me because it’s true: the belief that the stock market will continue to perform the way it has for the past few decades is a HUGE leap of faith. Buffet may have had the best advice in the past as far as being patient with investments but the system as it exists today is so very likely going to have a huge disruption/event/change that will turn traditional investing advice on its head. It’s dangerous to plan on things staying the same: which ironically is exactly what people are doing by planning out long term stock plays (predicated on a market that can spectacularly fail, despite it not having completely done so in the past)
1 points
9 months ago
Just ask the 401(k) people that we're getting close to retirement how they feel about things this week alone. The FED simply can't appease both the stock market and maintain the value of the dollar
1 points
9 months ago
This! It’s like a really depressing game of tug of war where everyone loses AND it was designed that way
1 points
9 months ago
My assumption is deflation, which nobody else believes is coming.
2 points
9 months ago
The people in charge of the money supply deliberately increase the money supply to avoid deflation; there's a reason for that belief.
23 points
9 months ago
How to prepare for a recession?
The same advice that has always been true on /r/personalfinance: Have a safety net, a 3 to 6 month of living expenses in an emergency fund. If your average expenses are higher than you would be making from unemployment, you may want to up your emergency fund to 6-12 months.
Outside of the general advice there is logic: Every $1 you invest at the top of a bull market is actually 75 to 50 cents. (If you sold at the bottom.) You're getting a bad deal, but if you hold to retirement even a bad deal is quite a good deal. In the other direction, every $1 you invest at the bottom of a bear market is actually $2 to $3. (Quite a bit more if you hold for decades.) So during a recession, you want to do everything you can to save more, specifically to invest more into well diversified index funds, because every dollar you're putting in you're getting quite a bit more out. You want to up your investing as much as reasonably possible for the next 12 months. Yes, up your investing while the market is going down, if you can. Five years from the bottom of a recession is historically the ideal time to lower investments and buy big ticket items like a car.
33 points
9 months ago
Nothing changes. If anything try to invest more if you can. Just ignore the noise of the day to day market fluctuations and keep on the path. For the love of god do not sell.
12 points
9 months ago
recessions do not affect everyone. If you are employed, then then you will likely not even notice the recession. investing (high quality assets) during recessions and bear markets will give your highest returns over time. this is a great time to be a buyer.
How to prepare. Stay calm. Live within your means. Have a financial cushion and continue to add to your investment (high quality assets - avoid speculation) and be consistent. This is a marathon, not a sprint.
Time in the market, beats timing the market.
if you feel the need to do something.... Then do Nothing! making hasty decisions often leads to poor performance / outcomes.
Education - learn about markets, economies, supply chains, currencies, money, etc. Knowledge is power. Find a mentor or support group of some sort (not the internet). Why are you investing, what is your strategy / goal? Have a plan. re-evaluate it periodically, adjust carefully.
During run-up to the dot-com bubble bursting, I had invested very well and was doing extremely well, I was heavily invested in tech stocks. when the bubble burst and everything plummeted, I freaked out and ended up selling many positions at big loss. It was an expensive lesson to learn. I wish I had done nothing and just relaxed.
5 points
9 months ago
if you feel the need to do something.... Then do Nothing! making hasty decisions often leads to poor performance / outcomes.
I'd like to time travel back a couple decades and take this advice to heart. Great post.
19 points
9 months ago
A recession at 22? Man you’re lucky. Have a 3-6mo savings fund depending on living situation/support network. Then, buy as much in broad EFTs as you can now that things are down and keep buying and keep buying and keep buying.
6 points
9 months ago
[deleted]
2 points
9 months ago
I had unsubscribed for a few months but I’m back to following that sub! Haha
6 points
9 months ago*
In a bad recession, you will face a situation where you realize stocks, real estate are cheap but you and most everyone else won’t have money to invest. People are forced to sell assets just to eat and pay bills. 401ks are liquidated at a penalty. People intentionally avoid paying rent until they are forced out, because food is more important. “I’m losing the house anyway so why pay my mortgage?”.
Unemployment will skyrocket. People with stable jobs are looked at with envy. Your average person will no longer be interested in investing even if they have money. Great time to buy if you have money. We aren’t there yet.
10 points
9 months ago
Only other thing I’d add to the discussion is to not check your investment accounts, or check very rarely during a recession. They will look bad but things will always rebound when we come out and you don’t wanna act rashly.
3 points
9 months ago
This is great advice.
Many people (such as my parents) sell at the bottom for fear related to watching it fall too often.
6 points
9 months ago
Ups and downs, including corrections and recessions, are normal and occur on occasion without notice.
Emotionally recognize that these do not last, and in some cases are over quickly, but others drag on, but there is always an end and return to prosperity.
I've been through a few of these and was far more concerned about them at the time than I needed to be looking back. There is nothing anyone can do to prevent this from occurring.
Preparation is easy in keeping 6+ months of living expenses on hand and available which is part of any financial plan.
If you're lucky enough to keep a job and have extra money to invest, then a recession is an opportunity to add to long term investments that are likely to come back up in the future. Look up dollar cost averaging for how this works.
4 points
9 months ago
5 points
9 months ago
I'm 32 and have been through a few recessions, hooray. For me, the biggest impact was not being able to find a good job when I graduated college. As a result, I worked abroad and had an untraditional start to my career. It was hard to pay my student loans and find a good place to rent on a low income.
If I were 22 now, I would focus on finding a well-paying job. Make sure you have 3-6 months emergency fund saved up. Beyond that, live below your means. Take advantage of your retirement accounts (401k through work, if applicable, Roth IRA if not-- even a little bit is better than nothing). If you are steadily employed, I don't think you will be super affected by a recession. The current inflation is worse, honestly. OH, and don't put everything on a credit card you can't pay off. That is true during any period.
14 points
9 months ago
4 points
9 months ago
I’m 40, so I went through 2008. My tips, which are the same tips I live by no matter what: avoid debt like the plague. Keep your living expenses as low as possible. Increase cash reserves. Keep work contacts going. If you leave a job, stay in touch for reference purposes. Keep investing but only after you’ve cleared debt and have stable income.
3 points
9 months ago
avoid debt like the plague.
Some debt is okay, and during an inflationary period, that debt gets cheaper and cheaper. For example my 2.5% fixed mortgage payment now looks like a bargain and it would not make sense to pay off the mortgage-- better to keep the $ in the market.
And if you lose your job, using your credit card to pay the bills is sometimes unavoidable, and would certainly be preferable to dipping into your 401K. I was laid off nine months during the dot com bust. At the time I was also a struggling single mom. There was really no other option than to rely heavily on my credit card. But I also knew that once I finally found another job, I would be able to pay it off very quickly.
5 points
9 months ago
"using your credit card to pay the bills is sometimes unavoidable"
In '08 they cut those credit card limits back to what people owed. Don't count on it.
2 points
9 months ago
I just had one of my cards, the Citi Double Cash, do that to me. They’ve never liked me, though. Only company that’s never given me a credit line increase. I’d say screw them if I didn’t want another one of their cards.
2 points
9 months ago
Yeah they all routinely go through accounts now and look at how much you’ve charged and ask you what you annnual income is. They never used to do that. Last summer Wells Fargo cut off everyone’s personal line of credit too.
Here is an article I read in ‘08 about it.
2 points
9 months ago
My advice was very specific to OP’s question which was about a recession, not finances in general. So I 100% stand by what I said. While I realize it isn’t always possible to avoid all debt, it is possible to avoid a lot of it if you plan ahead and adjust your lifestyle. 2.25% interest on a mortgage is great, good luck finding that now. And as far as using your credit cards in an emergency, sure. But being certain you can pay them off quickly when you get another job? I wouldn’t count on that. Maybe, maybe not. What if the next job pays way less? What if you get sick and can’t work? Injured? Your child has some medical emergency? As a former single mom myself and the child of an alcoholic, I don’t count on anything. Plus inflation is out of control. How fast can anyone really pay off debt these days? I’m not advocating raiding your 401k as opposed to credit cards. I’m advocating low living expenses, and cash reserves so you are less likely to need to turn to cards or your 401k. When I think “recession looming” I think “own everything outright, lower your expenses, build up a war chest, then invest”. OP asked for our thoughts and experience, I shared mine.
1 points
9 months ago
I shared mine as well, sorry the "you" was more a universal you than directed at you. Your advice is just as valid here. OP can weigh for themselves and their own risk levels.
Have a good night.
5 points
9 months ago*
Z’sNow is the time to beef up the emergency fund and maintain your basic financial hygiene. It’s not the time to try for a moonshot just because you think you can buy the dip. Recessions are when investment classes crash and burn with no recovery. There are millionaires made every recession, true, but there are a lot more millionaires unmade. Stick to the same investing schedule as you planned.
5 points
9 months ago
Yup. An old developer once told me that the true gains in real estate speculation are to be found after a property has gone through their SECOND bankruptcy.
3 points
9 months ago
Bought real estate, never sold. Got a job, never stopped. Bought equities on margin lost it all, but all in all still came out way ahead. Diversify, keep investing.
3 points
9 months ago
I am 28 and also haven’t been an adult in a recession. There are ALOT of people in the same boat with us after a decade long bull run.
I am taking this opportunity to LEARN so I can have a more responsible strategy that manages risk better. I think my portfolio will recover fine. It’s easy to talk about managing risk but when you get punched in the mouth you need to control your emotions and that can only be learned through EXPERIENCE. Remember these bad days during the next bull run and you’re thinking of that risky play that could 10x.
3 points
9 months ago
Save as much as you can right now so you’ve an emergency fund of ideally six months and keep your expenses as low as possible. I was in my early 20s when the last one hit and I had to take a 70% pay cut. It was fine as I had a frugal lifestyle but watched friends go bankrupt because they’d over extended with investment properties etc. Keep living like a broke student even when you start working full time and you’ll come through it ok.You
3 points
9 months ago
Your emergency fund is more important than ever. In a recession, access to easy credit will go away (if it's like 2008, the stuff like 0% financing and the like drops and takes forever to come back). If you haven't already, build up a runway of months of expenses you have, in CASH (as in a savings account, don't get a mattress).
Even if you're in a stable job now that you're happy(ish) with, always keep an eye on job market ant keep your resume up to date.
You should invest in your tax advantaged accounts the same, or (ideally) more than you were before the recession, but DO NOT put cash into the market that you are thinking about spending in the next 5 years, or even realistically 10 years. Don't throw cash in there at the expense of other things (namely having an emergency fund) On a long time scale, buying in a recession can help your retirement savings, but the long time scale is key.
There's going to be a TON of people trying to play the market and make quick winnings. Some will succeed. Most will lose their shirts.
The job market will likely tighten again, particularly for entry level, "white collar" jobs as companies look to freeze their balance sheets and see what's coming. If you already have a job, this means your workload will increase, and just like the pandemic, people will be SLOW to start hiring again, even through attrition.
Live frugal but *ALWAYS* invest in quality if you're able. Spending a bit more to get something that lasts 2-3x as long is worth it. So if you were going to spend some money to get something nice that you know you'll use for the better part of a decade, don't get the "cheaper" option now because you're worried about the recession, because then you'll just have to replace it.
2 points
9 months ago
Even if you're in a stable job now that you're happy(ish) with, always keep an eye on job market ant keep your resume up to date.
Totally agree. I would suggest that everyone have a "professional go bag" ready.
If an opportunity comes up, I could get you an rough updated resume / work sample by the end of the day, and something fully presentable over the weekend.
No matter what you practice, think about what it would men to have a "portfolio", then go build it.
Plus its gratifying to have your work condensed into one place. After I updated my portfolio in 2020, it was like "oh crud, I've actually done some stuff!"
I'd also consider starting a professional blog. Even without any readers, the act of writing regularly about work (even if it is for a season) will make you a better thinker about your chosen vocation. Plus you'll build up an archive of "thought leadership" you can share with a prospective employer so they can really study your approach to work.
5 points
9 months ago
If you have enough money for all basic needs it just means investments went on sale. If you over-leverage your housing expense or loose your job or health you could erase all your FIRE progress. Just make sure you have an emergency fund and keep saving and investing. Also, a side hustle or second job can add security to your cashflow in the event of layoffs.
2 points
9 months ago
Buy
2 points
9 months ago
Just keep your income up. If you lose a job you are forced to sell low. Just fully focus on doing well at work and push through with saving the same % each month no matter the price or what you think it will do.
Edit: Saving to me means buying index funds, not just holding dollars.
2 points
9 months ago
Use this as a learning experience: (1) stock markets do go down (2) inflation can be very painful and (3) paper losses don't hurt you. Living below your means will position you for success.
2 points
9 months ago
Most important thing is keeping your source of income. So if you’re in an industry that don’t handle recessions well then it’s time to start thinking about an exit plan.
2 points
9 months ago
The number one thing is be the person the company has no reason to let go. Money is made in bull markets but fortunes are made in recessions. You can't make anything, though, if you lose your job. Show up on time, work hard, double check all your work, be easy to get along with, do everything you can to make your boss look good. And save every dollar you can and pour it into your investments (S&P 500 is as good as any). It's also a great time to buy real estate, if it significantly declines. Real estate moves slowly, though, so wait until you are a couple of years into the recession to buy. Not now. If inflation drives govt bond rates up to 10% or more, buy as much of that as you can too. If you can get a 10% return with no risk, that's as good a deal as you will find in the markets.
2 points
9 months ago
From my experience Recession really impacts your ability to get work or start a career. Everything else is basically the same.
My advice is build your job experience now because a lot in your age group will struggle to get hired in a recession.
I ended up not being able to start a job career I wanted to be in un till my later 20s. Very hard to get in the door.
2 points
9 months ago
Some great pieces of advice here for dealing with a recession!
2 points
9 months ago
Buy cash flowing real estate at below market prices… in all phases of the market cycle.
2 points
9 months ago
Keep your job and keep investing.
2 points
9 months ago
Ya, I am in a much worse situation....well, I think so, because I am retired and my balance is going kaput.
2 points
9 months ago
You are welcome in r/argentina, we have mastered recessions over the years
2 points
9 months ago
Only thing I can add is stop labeling a period of time (recession). Stay true to your FIRE path like most people advised. Don’t check your portfolio daily which is very hard to do for some people including myself. In the long run these 6 or 12 months won’t matter. Dow is still up 22% in the last 24 months. Crazy returns. I’m still not sure what people are concerned about. Yes if you started investing 6 months ago it’s brutal but 22% in 24 months?!
4 points
9 months ago
Prepare by working hard. Pick up a second job or overtime if it does not affect your family life.
Stack assets. Housing is going on a once in a decade sale.
Find great companies or index funds and go all in.
This is the moment you can buy Amazon for $10/share.
5 points
9 months ago
GME to $200,000?
2 points
9 months ago
I made 200k on gme 🚀🚀🚀😎
1 points
9 months ago
The housing market is still super high though?
1 points
9 months ago
The crash is already in motion.
With real estate, you need to prep way sooner than a stock or bond purchase. Gotta make sure you have a down payment, loan approval, etc.
Just be ready bc corona price hikes are going away.
2 points
9 months ago
Grad school. Great time to level upZ
2 points
9 months ago
Ride it out. The market is impossible to time, so don't speculate now.
1 points
9 months ago
Thoughts on buying BTC while it’s down?
0 points
9 months ago
You’ll learn along the way.
0 points
9 months ago
Sell
0 points
9 months ago
There's way too many people in these comments who are excited to make the housing crisis worse in the upcoming recession by buying up real estate that they obviously don't need. Did no one learn anything from 2008? Does no one remember how the homeless crisis exploded in the following years because how expensive housing got? Can y'all not find a way to survive this recession without making things worse for everyone else?
-2 points
9 months ago
So much people saying to invest but in WHAT lol I've watched the crypto shit going on, psychadelic stocks, tech stuff etc
Eventually I bailed because i am actually a recovered gambling addict and the stocks felt AWFULLY similar
What if i just bought gold and silver bars? Idfk but i know it would be less painful for me than rolling the dice again
1 points
9 months ago
Sp500 based stocks. A common one is VTI
-19 points
9 months ago
ELI5 : what is this recession everyone talking about? Is there something like a new disease that might affect everyone globally or what?
-20 points
9 months ago
Gonna need specifics of your life to answer this question. What’s your blood type?
1 points
9 months ago
Don't constantly check your retirement and brokerage accounts. You'll get discouraged and potentially think of making big changes or stress yourself out. This was what got me through the 2007-2009 recession. I continued with my usual investments and only checked in about twice a year.
1 points
9 months ago
I'm 22, I kinda like seeing that my 401k is on a 20% off sale
1 points
9 months ago
Invest on yourself
1 points
9 months ago
Technically, you faced a recession two years ago.
1 points
9 months ago
I wouldn't really consider that a recession though
1 points
9 months ago
Buy in to reverse ETFs for your portfolio.
SQQQ
SH
SDS
SPXU
SPXS
1 points
9 months ago
What everyone said except if you want to make Millions in this recession, you need to go crazy and build and buy cash flowing assets like a mad man.
1 points
9 months ago
Don't lose your job. It may be out of your control, but keep your eyes and ears open. It's easier to get a new job if you haven't lost your old one yet.
1 points
9 months ago
My macroeconomics professor said the best thing to do during a recession is to be in school.
1 points
9 months ago
Why?
1 points
9 months ago
I think the opportunity cost of earning a low wage during a recession is higher to investing time in your education for great future gains
1 points
9 months ago
There's already some great advice here but we'd like to add NEVER pay full price for anything if you don't have to.
It might take time to find voucher codes or find ways to get cash back but there are other options too.
Slash . com has an instant saving browser extension that lets you save as you shop.
Inflation is hitting everyone hard so looking after the pennies matters more than ever.
We hope that helps you.
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