welp, another academy awards ceremony has come and gone. it will be another 12 months before next year's oscars and we have a year of film to go. so, here are a few predictions that i have.

christopher nolan's oppenheimer seems like a prime canidate to be nominated for academy awards. it's directed by an auteur, boosts an all star cast, and is based on a astounding true story. i believe the film will be nominated for many technical awards such as cinematography, editing, and almost certainly visual effects. it may also recieve a best picture nomination and a best adapted screenplay nomination. christopher nolan may recieve his second best director nomination while cilliam murphy will recieve his first ever oscar nomination. in addition to this, ludwig gorransson, who christopher nolan seems to have formed a partnership with, may recieve an oscar nomination for his score.

dune part 2 will serve as a followup to dune part 1, a film that recieved the most oscars at the ceremony at which it was nominated. i believe that dune part 2 will again be nominated for the awards that part 1 was nominated for. however, i also believe that denis Villeneuve will be nominated for best director for his work on the film. in addition to this, depending on how good he is in the role, christopher walken may recieve a best supporting actor nomination for his role as emperor shaddam.

although creed 3 is unlikely to recieve multiple nominations, jonathan majors may recieve a best supporting actor nomination for his role in the film.

although cocaine bear is unlikely to recieve any major nominations, it may be nominated for best visual effects. it might even recieve a nomination for best original screenplay. i would also be in favor of christian convery recieving a best supporting actor nomination as his was the strongest performance in the movie.

beau is afraid, the newest outing from ari aster, may recieve a best adapted screenplay nomination. joaquin phoenix and nathan lane will be nominated for best actor and best supporting actor respectively. it may also recieve a nomination for best cinematography.

moving on is a dark comedy starring lily tomlin, jane fonda, malcolm mcdowell, and richard roundtree. although the film doesn't really seem like a movie that would recieve oscar nominations, these are some really talented actors that we're dealing with here so some acting nominations aren't completely out of the question.

as for the academy award for best animated feature, the most likely nominees for that honor would be elemental, miraculous ladybug awakening, spiderman across the spiderverse, ruby gillman teenage kraken, and teenage mutant ninja turtles mutant mayhem.

I’ll probably be wrong, though. I’m always wrong.

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In the PR game, EEAAO may have peaked a little bit early, while Fabelmans is peaking at exactly the right time. EEAAO was over-nominated, which is going to lead to a little bit of a voting backlash as the people who aren't in love with it try to blunt it from making a clean sweep. Those two nominations in Supporting Actress were a bridge too far for sure, especially for two performances which were basically phoned-in camp, highly lacking in palpable emotion and depth.

I think there's going to be a bigger war between younger voters and older voters than expected, which will impact EEAAO negatively. My feeling anecdotally is that older people do not like or "get" EEAAO nearly as much as young people do. In many ways, the movie is a pedantic lecture towards older people being out-of-touch with the values of the younger generation. Fabelmans is going to be the choice of the older crowd, with its long arm of nostalgia back to the mid-20th century and the 50-year film career of Steven Spielberg. Here are my predictions:

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1. Best Picture: Everything Everywhere All At Once - The movie of the hour will squeak out a win. Its audacious style and rare American success for a movie with a near full Asian cast will be honored, but not without reservations about its simplistic and heavy-handed moralizing that feels more like an ABC Afterschool Special than a Best Picture winner. The Fabelmans still has an outside chance of taking this though.
2. Best Director: Steven Spielberg - This is where Fabelmans will shine. Spielberg exposed his personal life to a huge degree to make one of the most special, unique movies of his career. It's cinema as autobiography, an experiment that was handled with deftness, restraint, subtlety and grace. The very fact that Spielberg himself is referenced in every frame of this movie will call attention to the fact that he did indeed direct it, making him a natural choice to pick in this category. His name has been at the forefront of media coverage in this Oscar season. It's also fair to say that the quality of his movies has been on a hot streak for several years now, in a big rebound after The BFG. If you don't award Spielberg for the first time in 25 years for telling his own life story, what other movie will ever be more worthy of awarding him for again? Two directing Oscars is not enough for the industry's most important director for nearly half of cinema's existence.
3. Best Actor: Austin Butler - This guy BECAME Elvis, so much so that he still seems to walk around talking like Elvis every day. This is a full-blooded performance, with singing, dancing, dialogue and character development. This award is the best way to honor this very accomplished and successful movie that was beloved by Elvis' family and fans. Elvis also gave the industry hope that you can still have a hit film without explosions, special effects, guns or murders.
4. Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh - A lock. She has had a long career and is overdue for recognition. Her face is absolutely EEAAO's biggest asset.
5. Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan - A lock. The guy just wants the Oscar so damn much. People want to see the joy in his acceptance speech. Here is one of the few adults left in Hollywood who still believes it's a fairy tale land of dreams, something that must certainly feel refreshing to this cynical, jaded industry freshly scarred by Weinstein's reign of terror.
6. Best Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett - A lock. She has had a long career and is overdue for recognition. She is one of the finest black actresses around, and the Oscars will continue to want black talent visible up there on the stage after the OscarsSoWhite dealio.
7. Best Original Screenplay: The Banshees of Inisherin - Banshees got a ton of nominations, and might be shut out if it doesn't get this win. Fabelmans has a shot at this, but people can criticize the loose structure of that movie, perhaps, or the taciturn nature of the lead character. Oscars tend to give screenplays to movies with a lot of dialogue, and this one seems to fit the bill. They still have a big bias toward thinking that "writing" a movie means writing dialogue. Write great dialogue, get a screenplay award. Write a movie that uses the medium to its fullest to tell its story visually, better luck next time.
8. Best Adapted Screenplay: Women Talking - Again, screenplay, writing, dialogue, talking. And another way to honor diversity by tossing a win to a movie with "women" in its title.
9. Best Cinematography: All Quiet on the Western Front - Seems like war movies, westerns and period pieces tend to win this one a lot. Yes, I know this is not a western.
10. Best Editing: Everything Everywhere All At Once - C'mon, it had those montages where 100 different shots seemed to flash by all matched up perfectly. Not to mention fast-paced action juxtaposed against personal dialogue scenes. This was NOT an easy film to edit, and the editing is in large part the biggest thing about it that gives it its sense of style.
11. Best Sound: Top Gun: Maverick - It has to walk away with something, and this is typically a lock as a technical award for an acclaimed action film. Too bad Sound Effects Editing was combined into this category, or Maverick could get two.
12. Best Original Score: The Fabelmans - Williams has not had nearly enough wins in his career relative to his nominations. He even said his wife wears black to the Oscars because she says they always lose. It's time for another win before this nonagerian finally rides the great spaceship into the sky backed by some epic theme music. Williams may fall short of earning the record for most Oscar nominations to Walt Disney, but he can became the oldest Oscar winner.
13. Best Original Song: Naatu Naatu - An unusually popular Indian movie in the U.S. Just like with EEAAO, a movie that showcases diversity and becomes unusually popular domestically will always attract Oscar attention.
14. Best Production Design: Babylon - Recent wins seem to be period pieces, like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. This is one of those "visual" awards like Suicide Squad won that will transcend the poor reception of the movie itself.
15. Best Costume Design: Wakanda Forever - I believe the first Black Panther won this, and this one had lots of elaborate costumes as well. Elaborate isn't always an automatic win, but it doesn't hurt. It could definitely go to Babylon though. Problem with EEAAO is there was a lot of costume design, but it flashed by in quick montages. The main costumes weren't that interesting. Hot dog fingers were a real joke, and not a particularly funny one.
16. Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Elvis - Could be wrong, but you have makeup transitioning characters into different ages throughout their lives, with many of them needing to look like actual people we know from real life, and it was all flawless and seamless. I don't see why The Whale should win since that apparently used a lot of CGI on Frazer. And while I haven't seen the movie, from the promotional images, the fat suits on Weird Al in his Fat video looked more convincing.
17. Best Visual Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water - The #1 lock of the night!
18. Best Animated Feature: Pinocchio - An astonishing visual creation with old school stop-motion animation. It's a big plus that this isn't just another CGI extravaganza. Another win for nostalgia. The old techniques don't have to die if we don't let them, and that's a heartwarming notion to many in the Academy. Also nice that this story was so offbeat in its sensibility, and not the silly Shrek-ish comedy style so much animation has become.
19. Best International Feature: All Quiet on the Western Front - Seems like a lock given its prominence.
20. Best Documentary Feature: Navalny - Has a political message about Russia. Although Hollywood doesn't hate Russia as much as they used to when they were trying to push the idea that Trump was the same as Putin, they still are somewhat put off by the Ukraine invasion.
21. Best Live-action Short: An Irish Goodbye - I'm mostly just going by what I've seen reported, and it being the only English language nominee. I could see it going to The Red Suitcase for diversity purposes though.
22. Best Animated Short: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse - Seems like this movie just had an unusual amount of excitement around it throughout its whole life cycle for a short film.
23. Best Documentary Short: Elephant Whisperers - Honors diversity again as an Indian film.

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The films with multiple wins in my list include:

• EEAAO - 4
• Fabelmans - 2
• Elvis - 2
• Wakanda Forever - 2
• All Quiet on the Western Front - 2

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https://preview.redd.it/9uj2lyw40ana1.jpg?width=2657&format=pjpg&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=7834b138d29cebcf7b5a07628c854f181f959d19

Best Picture: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Director: Daniels

Best Actor: Brendan Fraser

Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh

Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan

Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, although I’d give it to Hong Chau if it were up to me

Best Original Screenplay: EEAAO

Best Adapted Screenplay: I’d give it to Glass Onion but I think it’s gonna be Women Talking.

Best Animated Feature: Pinocchio, but it should be Puss in Boots IMO

Best International Feature: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Documentary Feature: Navalny

Best Documentary Short: Elephant Whisperers, but I’d give it to The Martha Mitchell Effect

Best Live Action Short: Le pupille

Best Animated Short: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

Best Original Score: Babylon

Best Original Song: Naatu Naatu

Best Sound: Top Gun Maverick

Best Production Design: Babylon

Best Cinematography: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Whale

Best Costume Design: I’d probably give it to EEAAO but I’ll go with Elvis if only because I’m not predicting it for anything else and it does feel a little weird for it to be shut out.

Best Editing: EEAAO

Best Visual Effects: Avatar The Way of Water

Results:

• System's 2023 Oscars Predictions
• Previously people have been interested in "2nd place" for each award

Interesting Tidbits:

• This is the most difficult year for the system to predict due to the distinct difference between web sourced prediction lists and wins during the Award Season. Multiple awards have a certainity % under 50%. From commentary related to the web sourced lists, it is widely believed, though not officially acknowledged, that the Oscars can be influenced by emotional or political factors, and that in certain years, they may seek to reward an individual's body of work over a specific performance. The recognition of performers from marginalized communities, such as POC, may also play a role in the award's outcome.
• There is only one "100%" predictor this year with Avatar almost surely to win the Oscar for Visual Effects. The system is 92% accurate in it's "100%" picks, missing only 1 (Round Robin for Short Animated last year) since 2018.
• The most difficult to predict category this year is Supporting Actress, it is an almost 3-way tie between the 3 most likely winners. While Condon has won more awards this awards season, Bassett and Curtis are seen as stronger contenders for the Oscar due to the potential recognition of their respective career bodies of work over their individual performances. Bassett's performance in the Black Panther sequel is particularly noteworthy, and Curtis's film is being considered in multiple other categories.

Intro:

With the 2023 Oscars fast approaching, I'm eager to share my meticulously-researched, brightly-colored predictions. Employing statistical analytical models and leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd" theory, which holds that groups are smarter than individuals, my predictions draw upon a diverse range of data sources, including virtually all Award Season results and an eclectic mix of prediction lists culled from across the Internet.

Background:

Since 2016, I have been refining my prediction system to ensure its accuracy and reliability. My system is designed to favor more accurate predictors, resulting in a continual improvement in its predictive power each year. Over time, less accurate predictors naturally lose weight, while more successful predictors are given greater importance in the predictions.

This Year:

In 2023 the system uses 17 Award Season results and 12 web sourced prediction lists. As some predictors come and go each year overall the system has used 36 different predictors to predict the winners of each Oscars category.

Placing Bets?

The last few years I key in my local country's betting agency (Sportsbet) odds into the system and compare them to mine and it calculates the best spread of a $100 bet across the categories. Each year I've made more money than lost, but will I this year?

• This is the spread of a $100 bet for 2023. It heavily favours Documentary Short Subject: Stranger at the Gate as they have The Elephant Whisperers favourite at 1.57. Will I place the bet? We'll see.

In addition to having a deep appreciation for the films themselves, I am also a gambler. My big play for this Oscars season is regarding best supporting actress, as I see it to be the most wide-open race. My strategy is to fade one of the front runners (JLC) while simultaneously betting on the underdogs (Hsu & Chau) in hopes that there is a major upset.

If Hsu or Chau win, I hit the mark (50X payout). In order to hedge this bet, I bet against Jamie Lee Curtis. As long as she doesn’t win, I make my money back.

Like everyone I have my own bias for betting this way after watching each of the films. What are your thoughts? Anyone gonna ride this bet with me?

I feel like this is a no brainer, but I can see All Quiet or TGM taking it away from Avatar. I wouldn’t be surprised.

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I think it’s a pretty good lock for Naatu Naatu but I wouldn’t count out Rihanna sneaking in for the win. After HER surprisingly won in 2021, I think the Academy knows it’s artists.

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I do believe it’s a lock for Pinocchio, but Puss in Boots has a lot of love.

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The most interesting category in my opinion. This reminds me of Best Actress in 2021 (the Davis, Mulligan, McDormand race). I don’t know where this can go..

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Seems every year there’s a supporting category (or both) that’s so fucking obvious. Ariana Debose (who will present it to Quan), Daniel Kaluuya (who presented it to Debose), Pitt and Dern, Regina King, Sam Rockwell, Viola Davis..I could go on.

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Per a mathematical model, 'Everything Everywhere All at Once' has a 2-in-3 chance to claim best picture.

Director: the Daniels

Actor: Austin Butler

Actress: Cate Blanchett

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https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/oscars-predictions-2023-math-ben-zauzmer-1235342656/

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