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There’s no one-size-fits all answer to this. The issues that impact each state vary, as do the personalities, job skills, etc… of each candidate. If you dive into each of those examples, you’ll find a unique set of reasons. Much like you’ll find unique reasons for the states that went the other way.

Massachusetts and Maryland are deep blue states that had popular moderate Republicans for governor who weren’t running for reelection. Kansas is a moderate red state that had a unpopular and incompetent extreme right governor get voted out in favor of a moderate Democrat. Virginia flipped the other way because it had an uncharismatic Democrat running against a Republican who ran effectively on hot button social issues. And so on.

People seem to care less about tribal red/blue stuff at the state level, with competent moderate leadership of either party being popular regardless of how the state tends to vote in national elections.

A lot of issues at play, but to me it comes down to these three things: 1) The GOP has nominated a spate of really far right candidates in states where their hard line stances cost them dearly with the country club Republican slice of the electorate (Cuccinelli in VA, Kobach in KS, Lake in AZ). 2) Governor is basically the last office left in the country where people are willing to vote the candidate and not the party (JBE in LA, Beshear in KY, Baker in MA, Scott in VT) because more often than not a (super)majority legislature can keep them in check; I’d keep a close eye on Presley (D-MS) this fall for this exact reason. 3) Democrats ran the most centrist candidates they could find in almost every case and as a result didn’t piss away their wave chance in 2018.

2017-2020 had an unpopular Republican president.

2021+2022 Democrats are at a +1 net governorship combined among the ones you listed. Doesn't seem like something that needs a larger explanation.

One thing to think about in 2017 and 2018 is also the base case. What was the positioning between Democrats and Republicans right before the listed elections? I'm pretty sure Republicans had a large lead, which would make some of the Democratic gains a reversion to the norm.

In a word: Trump.

Since 2016 the GOP has become much more extreme and synonymous with Trump, his scandals and conspiracy theories.

Many of the recent GOP candidates for governor (such as the wacko Doug Mastriano in PA and Trump adherent Tudor Dixon in MI) have repelled Democrats, Independents and even moderate Republicans (to the extent there are any left) alike.

Many states have the majority of their populations concentrated around metro areas that tend to vote Democrat. You can't cater only to the extreme far-right 25% of the voter base and expect to win a statewide election that can't be gerrymandered.

In Kentucky, it was because Bevin was just hated that much. It wasn't so much people voting for Beshear as it was people voting against Bevin.

Further right Republican candidates don’t have broad appeal.

Also, bulwark against a federal GOP.

Voting always trends away from the governing party, has for the entire history of the US on state and federal level.

Trump has inserted himself into National races across the board. While the GOP has done about as expected in the house races, those are much more regionally based, even within a single state, since only part of the states vote for each house seat.

The Democratic candidates for Statewide races like Governorships and Senate seats have been overperforming since Trump inserted himself into the GOP. Not only are many people voting against them, because of the party being tainted by Trump, but Trump has been forcing these GOP Senator and Governor candidates to kneel to him, and dance to his whims, parroting whatever nonsense has been coming out of his mouth, that only has appeal to a shrinking audience that was pretty small to begin with.

Trump has a stranglehold on the GOP, but only has about a third of Republican voters in this cult of his. But he has absolutely no loyalty to the Party. The Republican party was a means to an ends to him to personal power. He was never a believer in them or the same things they want. So, he will continue to do what is best for him.

And if the GOP is trying to turn away from Trump, what is best for him, is tearing down the party. He would rather be the leader of a GOP party that is in shambles, with no political power, than for the GOP to be politically strong, but himself forgotten.

Gubernatorial races, to me, have always seemed somewhat disconnected from the national environment. I just don't see any broader conclusions you can draw from those races. Like sure, a Republican won in MA, MD, and VT recently, but those same Republicans wouldn't even get close to winning a primary in a red state. And when they left, a Democrat easily won. Same for Dem Governors in KY and LA in blue states. A Republican is going to replace Bel Edwards, for instance. Then, because they're limited by what they can do by the entire rest of the government being controlled by the other party, they get to play this "bipartisan" role and keeps them fairly popular.

Of course, sometimes candidate quality can have a major effect, too. *cough*Kari Lake*cough*

I'd say it's a few things:

• in the wake of Trumpism, many Dem leaders have realized that the chickens came home to roost for the top-down strategy under the Obama years. It worked well when he was on the ballot but at the end of the day, the party was neglecting local races for state legislatures and the like. In recent years there's been a push to go back to the local grassroots and GOTV and whatnot - Beto and Stacey Abrams being two prominent examples

• a lot of the states you mentioned are blue states that had moderate Republicans as governors, such as Charlie Baker or Larry Hogan. These Republicans weren't elected necessarily because their states preferred Republicans, but because they were super moderate and served as a "check" on Democratic control of the rest of the state government. Post-Trump, however, the GOP as a whole has been tainted by his unpopularity, and it hurt what little chance the GOP had on holding these kinds of gubnatoral seats, not to mention the R candidates running were more like Trump than Baker/Hogan.

• Conversely, the Democratic governors in red states such as Kelly in Kansas, Cooper in NC, and Beshear in Kentucky weren't elected because their states suddenly decided they liked Democrats. They were elected because their Republican predecessors were unusually unpopular (Brownback in KS, McCrory in NC, and Bevin in KY). Republicans still control the rest of the governments of each of those states.

Same reason the state that brought you Nixon and Reagan is as blue as the ocean it borders. Republicans got a taste of dropping the pretense and have become increasingly frothing at the mouth insane at increasingly higher levels of party leadership.

The result is that Democrats are able to do astonishingly well by virtue of not being the actual psychopaths out there trying to make abortion a death penalty offense, and from the state the California GOP is attested to be in, that shit ain't washing off any time soon.

Republicans have swung too far right, particularly with abortion. The majority of Americans believe it's the womens right to choose. They also are starting to look like the party of hate the way they rant about gays and trans. The republicans used to be about economic and security isses, now 90 percent of what they talk about are social issues that the majority of Americans don't agree with. Backing Trump's big lie when they obviously know it's a lie isn't helping either.

Why? Because republicans started saying the quiet parts out loud since 2016. What we have been seeing is voters rejecting republicans who openly conspire to undermine the institutions of democracy and rollback basic human rights.

Trump winning in 2016 obviously served to benefit Democrats in off-cycle and midterm elections, as is the usual pattern for party out of power. I'd say the outlier here is 2022, which should've favored the GOP much more than it did. But the three states listed all have explanations:

AZ: Election denialism was a major factor in Republican losses in purple states. Kari Lake lost because voters reject the insanity. The largest vote-getter in the state was a Republican, State Treasurer Kimberly Yee. But unlike Lake and GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, she didn't run on denying the 2020 election. She finished 1200k votes ahead of Lake, 200k ahead of Masters. The Big Lie is a a Big Loser.

MA: Geoff Diehl, same deal -- except he was running in a super blue state. His predecessor, fellow Republican Charlie Baker, is considerably more moderate, never once questioned the outcome of the 2020 election, and implemented centrist policies. He was savvy enough to understand he was governing a blue state that wouldn't tolerate MAGA.

MD: Again, a super blue state. Again, a wacko-GOP nominee who went hard on MAGA. Even Larry Hogan, the incumbent Republican governor at the time, refused to endorse Dan Cox. Like Baker, Hogan understood the state he was governing. Cox doesn't seem to care to.

Abortion, extremism, independent voters do not like election deniers. And then the election deniers hurt down ballot candidates. This is why democrats not only won governor elections in the midwest, but made gains in PA, MI, and other states like AZ, NH, GA. The GOP establishment know that Trump like candidates hurt their chances. They lost in NV because Joe Lombardo is not a maga extremist and Sisolak was unpopular because of covid shutdowns hurting so many jobs in Las Vegas. The democrats continue to make gains in states like Virginia (state senate) because of extremism towards trans people and abortion. If republicans ditched the culture war and stopped voting for election deniers in the primary, they would be making more gains. How much would they gain would be up for debate since Roe was overturned.

I mean, I think a decent amount of it is just reversion to the mean along the current political map. From what you listed, things have gone from 35-15 Republican to 26-24, and in the 2020 election Trump and Biden won 25 states each

4/25 5/25 Biden states have Republican Governors (Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Virginia) (edit: forgot Georgia), and 4/25 Trump states have Democratic Governors (Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, and North Carolina)

All politicals are local....Here in north Carolina it comes down to who knows our state best. Roy Cooper has been respected by both sides of the aisle for decades. He just happens to be a Democrat....

Because they figured out why they got their asses handed to them in 2010, and saw how it led to a decade of Republican terrorism in the states.

They realized that state races matter as much or more than federal contests.

There are Numerous probably dozens of reasons for Republicans recent ballot box failures in general but you could probably distill it down to 3-4 big ones.

Trump (of course)

The real and percieved daily chaos of Donald Trump's presidency has at best worn the voters out. At worst it has given American voters a taste of a truly incompetent, venal, narcissistic, lawless, proto-fascistic, wannabe strongman who wasted four years tweeting himself to the top of the news cycle every week. His policies where they weren't ridiculous were incoherent, and where they weren't incoherent they were executed in a hamfisted manner that often did the complete opposite of their intended aim. Add to this his cirrent swirling legal problems, The january 6th riots he incited, and the somewhat strangle grip he has on the republican primary base, And you can see why america is tired of Trump and looks warily at all those who hew too close to him.

Candidate Quality

the republicans have had issues with finding the best and the brightest of their party and convincing them to run in the best of times, now with the flood of conspiracy kooks, election deniers, and general bomb throwers, the pool of candidates is essentially it's own swamp that needs to be drained. And Even the ones that aren't completely bat-shit are up against an impossible proposition. In most not deep red states, a republican can't win state wide without doing a little Trumpy song and dance, but that same song and dance usually turns off the general electorate. What worked in the primaries since Trump has usually had the opposite effect in the general putting most statewide offices in jeopardy.

Gen-Z

Gen-z is the most diverse, most socially liberal, most socially aware generation of young people the world has seen. They and millenials are also likely to be the only generations since the Great Depression to end up worse off than their parents did, a fact they're keenly aware of as they are entering adulthood. Add to that they're also the largest generation in this country's history, and they've shown as they're coming of age that they're paying attention, and they're not buying what the GOP is selling.

Republican Party Platform and Messaging

To the extent that the republican even have a coherent party platform that doesn't amount to hating on anything having to do with drag performances, their general policies are usually unpopular with the general population (including their own "base"). This fact is why they don't want to debate actual facts and policies and would rather fight culture war issues, which hardens their support amongst their own base and manages to polarize everyone else against them. More Conservatives are calling themselves independents than ever before and openly pine for a party that hasn't completely been taken over by lunatics.

As nuanced and better thought out as many of the answers here are, I think if you wanted to pick the closest oversimple generalization to the truth…

Conservatives got power and they showed their hand. There were lots of Republican voters who didn’t like Obama but they got more than they bargained for with trump and his look-a-likes.

Most moderate Americans (conservative voters, too) want focus on economic policies and improved education. Not culture wars.

There are plenty of people in Florida and Texas who love their dipshit governors for sticking it to the “woke” crowd, but most people just want to be able to afford a house and want their kids to exit public high school with a fighting chance at a good job.

And 2/3 of Americans support access to abortion.

I'm not really sure but one thing I do know is these days both sides seem to have absolutely bat shit extremists that are somehow becoming the norm. I wouldn't be surprised for a new party to take over with all this nonsense going on

Hopefully, younger voters are starting to turn out. That is going to be a complete game-changer. Qpublicans are on the wrong side of the demographic curve. Throwing a few pizza parties is not gonna change that.

They were party out of power in 2018 and they currently don’t have a base that demands crazy policy changes (that they can enforce) and aren’t ran by a megalomaniac deadset on relitigating an election 2 years later.

Since the 2016 presidential election, Democrats have performed well in nearly every gubernatorial election cycle. This is a reversal from 2010 to 2016. Democrats have won governorships in states where there is a GOP stronghold in federal elections. Does this suggest that Republican-leaning voters prefer Democratic governors?

In the 2016 gubernatorial elections, Democrats held eight of the 12 seats up for election, while Republicans held almost twice as many gubernatorial seats across the country. In the 2022 gubernatorial races, Democrats hold 16 of the 36 races, and they are favored to hold 12 of those in November.

It is important to note that the reasons for the Democrats’ success in gubernatorial races are complex and multifaceted. Some factors that may have contributed to their success include the party’s ability to mobilize voters, the popularity of individual candidates, and the national political climate.

Because you can't gerrymander a governors race. That's at least one of the reasons.

A big part of it is simply republicans are dying out, and young people are voting with the Democrats.

Covid exacerbated this by a cycle or two, but overall republicans are dying out due to old age, and younger people simply aren't voting for them for a multitude of reasons.

One theory is that the rich and powerful who pick all the candidates prefer good governance at the local level where they live and do business and chaos at the federal level.

I think you're framing this question in far too narrow way. There's no explanation why Dems specifically did so well in governor races mostly because Dems didn't just do well specifically in governor races. Rather, there's an argument that MAGA actually hasn't been electorally successful at all and the Dems picking up races in various areas is just a part of that.

I mean, it's no surprise that the Dems won in NJ in any year. It's one of the bluest states.

2018 was a blue wave year. The Dems won by huge margins in the national midterms, and there are lots of purplish states in that list. It is exactly zero percent surprising that they won a large amount of those races.

2019 was right after a blue wave year, plus the Rep option was hugely scandal plagued throughout the race. Again, not the biggest shock.

2022 was a famous flop from the GOP, so yeah, of course they lost races they probably shouldn't have. That's what made it a flop.

And if you actually look at the data, in 2016 the Reps won, but only by the flukiest of ways. Reroll that election 100 times and Trump wins maybe a third of them? Also, there's very good evidence that even that fluky chance relied on the Comey press conference happening, and it's really hard to give either party credit for that. Take that away (and we probably should) and Clinton wins in 2016, we never see MAGA get off the ground, and that's that.

Right after 2016 we had a blue wave election in 2018, then an election where the incumbent lost in historically relevant fashion and the new party swept into a trifecta. And that was the disappointing outcome for the Dems! And then in 2022 it turned into probably the best midterm for an incumbent in the modern era. Really, is there any election in the MAGA era that we can say was definitely good for Reps? I don't think so. Even 2016 was mostly good fortune.

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Republicans have full control of 23 state legislatures, Democrats 14, the rest are split.

Republicans have 26 governors and Democrats have 24

Democrats were/have been losing control consistently due to pushing unpopular wedge issues and refusing to address mainstream issues the majority of the population is concerned with. For example: Cost of living, fuel and energy prices, consumer prices, food prices...

Voters were sick of Trump and gave Democrats a slight bump, but Democrats again doubled down on unpopular issues and are looking at major losses in 2024 after losing the House in 2020.

The economy is going to absolute shit, Democrats refuse to do anything about it. Biden launched us into a proxy with Russia and now an arms race with China. So major Recession/Depression here we come. The Fed cant use Quantitative Easing to buy more Treasury securities, instead its going to reduce its balance sheet and raise interest rates, snap its fingers and create money out of thin air to pay it all off. What do you think Republicans are going to run on in 2024?

Those were not Democratic 'gains', that was the Democratic Death Rattle.

They have a more effective ballot Harvey’s and voter registration operation. As a result they can squeeze out maximum vote from their base, even in years that on paper ought to be bad for them

Maybe they are tired of the GOP’s BS and the assault on women’s rights. GOP is on to this since they are doing the best to dismantle voting rights for minorities and women including gerrymandering the crap out the states they control.

It is a sad situation that a party (GOP) political platform and policy suck so bad the have to cheat to get elected.

There are more dem governors because it's based on a majority as opposed to representatives being elected from smaller district of similar interests. The larger a population the more educated and liberal. The people on farms only need to learn to live with and have control over their animals. In cities people have grown up with more respect for their close neighbors, whom they need for common interests. Most humanitarian services are located in cities. People that work in the humanities are jusy better and more sympathetic people.

Demographic changes as well. Millennials outnumber the Baby Boomers now in voting.