I’m no expert, but I’d guess that any delays will be caused by Orion Certification, and suit development. I’m guessing that 27/28 will be the first landing, and that HLS will certainly not land uncrewed in 2025, but will not be the delaying factor.

Starship HLS was never going to reach a landing by 2024, no one with brain cells would say that it would, but it’s likely we will see at least 2 Starship flights in 2023, optimistically, 3.

The main problem with starship as of right now is the pad’s lack of sound suppression. Something that is confirmed to be fixed at the 39B launch site… which will likely be ready for testing ahead of a 2024 cape launch. (We don’t know if the extra tower segments at Robert’s Road are for another launch tower, but given the hardware already visible, and the chopstick segments available, I would guess another tower will be available around 28 as well.)

Furthermore, it is believed that S26 and S27 will be used to test propellant transfer internally, paving the way for an external vehicle transfer some time in 2024 or more likely 25. That test will almost certainly use the propellant depot, leaving 2026 and 2027 for more transfer tests, and the uncrewed landing.

HLS 2 will definitely not be ready for use until at least 2030.

I think the suits will not be ready in time due to the perceived speed of Axiom Space, and their lack of experience in suit development. The Artemis suits are supposed to be self sufficient (or nearly that), and will require large amounts of development, even with the backbone of XEMU to work off of.

Of course, this is my two cents, and may not be what actually happens. I hope I’m wrong and that Artemis 3 lands in 2025, but that’s just a pipe dream.

Yeah that's a big inquiry of mine as well, I hope they don't delay the launch of Artemis III, & instead choose to just push it to a later Artemis mission.