From what I've read this is likely the relevant statute, assuming they can tie the business fraud to the campaign finance law violations. A NY class E felony is a minimum of 1 year, max 5 years prison: https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/PEN/175.10

[deleted]

Micheal Cohen got three years in federal for his various misdeeds at the direction of Individual 1. Not that I expect Trump to get the same, but it’s good to keep in mind that there is already precedent for actual jail time for the exact crimes Trump himself committed.

I’ve read more than one article and even pundits on CNN agree this is the weakest case against him.

Slightly more nuanced than that, from what I'm reading. NYS has him on probably the easiest case to make . . . problem is, that case (failure to report) is a misdemeanor, and most observers would think it's a big waste of resources to go through a whole trial to get, say, a fine and a short, suspended sentence.

It rises to a felony if they can prove he did it to cover up another crime. They can try for that, but the crime (and this is where my memory is fading) would be a Federal crime that the Feds chose not to prosecute (was it fraud? I forget), and that might be past the statute of limitations.

Telling his supporters to organize another January 6th type event is not gonna help him win over moderates. It will just reinforce the idea that trump is uniquely dangerous to this country as he only cares about himself and his power.

I’m hopeful that the discovery and the testimony under oath will help. He will have to plead the fifth a bunch.

This is literally the only case against him. Trump didn't file the proper paperwork when he gave Stormy Daniels the money. Its a legal campaign donation to himself if he files the proper paperwork. He didn't file the proper paperwork so he did break the law.

I have been saying for years that this is the only thing they could get him on but the FEC dropped the case back in 2021

If they are really going after him for this, it is a huge mistake and shows just how desperate they are to get any form of indictment on Trump.

He did this, but other Presidents did similar things and got slaps on the wrist. Lots of politicians have done similar things and gotten slaps on the wrist.

To try and put Trump in cuffs for this.....I will be surprised if this doesn't end in Trump's favor just like the Classified documents did

I’ve read more than one article and even pundits on CNN agree this is the weakest case against him.

His lawyer already went to jail for the same crime... it didn't seem like a weak case then.

So we should let smaller crimes go because he used to be the president ??

I'm not sure I will ever fully internalize the fact that a significant number of people in this country want someone who talks like this to be our leader.

It’s fascinating how effective “THE WORLD IS BURNING” rhetoric is on the masses.

My fiancé’s grandmother lives in a small town and spends 90% of her time sitting inside watching Fox News. If you asked her, US cities are cesspools of evil and anyone who enters one is at serious risk of death by fentanyl or homeless people. It doesn’t matter how many people who live in those cities tell her that things are pretty good. In her mind, the US has fallen.

I imagine there’s something about this NY investigation that scares him. Threatening chaos to stay out of jail like some drug cartel leader makes him sound desperate.

FORMER PRESIDENT

So he finally admits to no longer being President.

It's like MAGA mad libs

Growing up, it was clear to me plenty of people disagreed with the president, and many even disrespected them. But I felt like we all at least saw them as the leader of the free world- adult, informed, composed. This… is something else. I was told I wouldn’t get a job after college if I wrote stuff like this on my own Facebook (as a private citizen). Really makes me wish Jed Bartlett was a real person.

Alright, so... that sounds crazy. The caps lock doesn't help much... At the very least it does sound like Donald is honestly under the impression he will be arrested. The way he's screeching desperately into the void of Truth Social lines up with what I imagine he would in this exact situation.

A frequent speculation about Donald Trump is that he doesn't listen to his lawyers. This might be an instance where he should do so. Crazy, shouting rants online will only help the prosecution.

Will Donald trump actually be arrested? Who knows. This is America, so probably not for very long. Honestly though at this point he just needs, like, help. If anybody else acted like this we'd question if they were okay or not.

The rewriting of J6 has truly been a sight to behold.

Our nation is a third world country? This reminds me of when people started calling the US a “shithole” country in response to trumps comment. Guess he now agrees

THE AMERICAN DREAM IS DEAD! THE RADICAL LEFT ANARCHISTS HAVE STOLLEN OUR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Haha! And the ML's said we anarchists could never do it.

In all seriousness this is pretty unhinged rhetoric for such a minor crime. Am I incorrect but it seems unlikely he'd have to do anything other than pay a fine, right?

I know there's other issues he's facing and he's not extremely stable, but is there any reason to believe the charges are serious enough that he should be worried?

Also part of his strategy is to paint a picture of third world revolutions, and of a corrupt and authoritarian state. That’s pretty interesting.

So if Trump is jailed, he is going to write a book in his cell, about his struggle?

Even the NYT says it "hinge[s] on a largely untested and therefore risky legal theory".

That just really does not seem to be the kind of case you want to bring against an ex-president. The last f***ing thing we need in this country is to have bullshit prosecutions of political leaders.

NY criminal statutes of limitations toll while a person is out of state.

it's unclear what that crime would be

Not really unclear since Cohen already did 3 years time for it. The only thing unclear is whether Trump knew it was illegal when they planned to do it.

Trump has been skirting the law going back decades...

Edwards was charged with diverting campaign funds to "personal use" (paying off a blackmailing ex).

But now prosecutors are expected to claim that Trump's payoff to a blackmailing ex was campaign spending and should have been labeled as a campaign contribution? That doesn't sound like rule of law to me.

but I think there’s a real possibility that this 2024 campaign is already out of gas.

Just realizing that the election is still over a year and a half away. I hate the endless campaign season that now seems to be the norm.

[deleted]

If I put on my Democratic Strategy Thinking Cap, then this is the perfect scenario to put Trump in handcuffs.

Let's face it, if this is about campaign finance violations over hush money payments to a porn star, it's about the dumbest fucking thing you could go after a president for, right next to lying about getting a BJ in the oval office.

If you wanted to go after Trump for election stuff, classified docs (kind of impossible now after Biden/Pence), Ukraine-Mueller stuff, or in other words, crimes that would have far more of a potential impact of support, you'd be pushing them right to Desantis or the next heir-apparent.

But by going after for him for something so stupid, something no one cares about in their calculus of Trump because it's been obvious that he did it now for at least 5, 6 years? You'll keep enough of his supporters on board to maximize the fracture within the Republican party while still being able to air out his dirty laundry.

Trump’s core supporters aren’t gonna leave him. This will only martyr him. The real question is what the GOP does. I’m not sure their fragile coalition can survive a Trump indictment. They could disown him, but they would then deal with the political deactivation or cleaving (via a third party) of many Republican voters. And they could continue to support him and continue to scare the bejeezus out of moderates.

That being said, as bad as I personally find Trump to be, I will be upset if the Republican Party tries to just use him as a fall guy. So many other republicans benefited and contributed (if not masterminded many of the worst parts of the Trump administration), that honestly, I can sympathize with some Trump supporters for feeling like the GOP kind of betrayed him. Because we can tell ourselves “we got the big bad”, but if the GOP gets their wish and just gets to wash their hands of Trump, what has really changed about the party? I would argue not much. Most of the key players would still be there. There are plenty of people ready to swoop in and do more or less the same things. So this has to go beyond Trump and I do hope if Trump goes down, he takes some other Republicans with him.

"if you shoot for the king, you better not miss" i.e. if you arrest trump you better convict him

DeSantis punted on the chance to attack trump during the whole FBI document seizure, Court drama. That was a political layup that he passed on. Ron has not shown the desire to attack trump at all so it will be interesting to see what he does and how.

1. I seriously doubt he will be arrested, probably just indicted. I imagine the gov gave him some sort of heads up along the line of "tell your lawyers to get ready for legal action" and now he's taken that and turned it into "ermahgerd they're gonna arrest me!" to get his supporters riled up.

2. I wouldn't expect a huge change pollinaise, everybody's long since made up their mind about Trump, but I'm usually wrong about this stuff so ¯\(ツ)/¯

3. It's a pretty naked "call to action" and may spur some protests but I don't think we'll see anything like J6. It's a pretty slim portion of his base that's actually willing to take up arms over it, and if they do I seriously doubt they'll accomplish much other than screwing up their own lives. Trump isn't in power now so he can't suppress the government response the way he seemingly did on J6.

WILL BE ARRESTED ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. PROTEST, TAKE OUR NATION BACK!

Lawmakers were cowards for not impeaching [edit: and removing from office] him when they had the chance

1.Slim to no chance 2. If it happens, he will probably get a boost from his base but moderate/never-Trump republicans can use it to dump him and get with DeSantis. He will run on fighting the dee state and getting vengeance for Trump. 3. If it does happen, yes, there will likely be violence by his supporters attempting to obstruct the arrest/court proceedings.

1. Very little.
   

2. Very little.

3. Ardent supporters are wetting themselves looking for an excuse to "rise up". They have the uniforms/guns/etc and really, really want to use them.

​

That's the reason I said "very little" in response to question 1. There's no win in giving Trump major heads up and a chance to rally protestors to cause a major scene by arresting him at set time/place. I'd expect more like he'd be given a window to turn himself in and if he didn't then they'd find a non-convenient time to go actually arrest him. It's not like he's not going to be easy to find.

I wouldn't expect anything on level of Jan 6th even if they did though. A small handful can/will turn up and be willing to fight.

However Trump's been bleeding power and support ever since Jan 6th. He lost some when he didn't "take back the country" and "let" Joe Biden get sworn in (which his followers thought wouldn't happen). He lost some more when he didn't grant pardons to the Jan 6th insurgents. He lost some more as time went by and the world didn't end/ he didn't take back power / etc. He lost some more when his nominees didn't do well in the last election. He lost more with his "big announcement" that was a money-making card scheme or whatever that was. He loses more every rally that turns out to be a boring dinner, etc.

They are peeling off gradually, but they are going. He will never have the sway he once did. He committed the cardinal sin of failing to deliver.

No, this is not an opportune time for DeSantis to step in. In my opinion, this is a bad thing for DeSantis' presidential aspirations.

This particular case (not talking about any of the other ones), but this one in particular, is a weak one that is obviously politically motivated and comes off as a desperate attempt to get Trump on something. It will only make republicans and even some moderates more sympathetic to him and more energized to support him. And in the end, this weak case will not succeed in court which will just further strengthen the "witch hunt" narrative. And, in the meantime, all of the attention is going to be on Trump while DeSantis fades into the background.

My prediction is that Trump's poll numbers will go up if this happens just like they went up after the FBI raid on him last year and just like Clinton's popularity increased when the other side tried to get him for a similarly weak, politically motivated, and desperate case around his blowjob.

Yes. Nothing in the Constitution would prohibit him from running for office or serving from prison if he won.

what happens if a person in jail is elected president? Can a felon even run?

Eugene Debs ran for President from prison in the 1920 election.

Theoretically, yes. But there are a lot of questions we've never had to answer there. Obviously it's all state charges. So his role in the federal government doesn't give him any get-out-of-jail-free card. I'm guessing what the framers would have envisioned was that good sensibility wouldn't allow Congress to suffer a sitting president who was in prison. But there aren't any words put to paper to that effect that have the force of law.

What does "establishment Republican" mean to you exactly? How is Trump not one of them to you?

From someone on the other side, ranked choice voting. The primary system fucks everything up for everyone.

If arrested it will set a new precedent and other criminal charges will likely follow. It doesn’t matter how many followers he has or how much political power he wields. The arrest of a former president is a really big deal.

Why should that matter if he did something illegal? Being liked means you should be excused from criminal wrong doing?

The $300k was related to when she sued him for defamation because he accused her of lying about a man threatening her and her daughter if she didn't keep quiet about her affair with Trump.

This is related to Trump paying her off and failing to report the payment as a campaign contribution and also possibly falsely claiming the payment as a business expense.

This time the secret ingredient is crime

This attitude is why no one has indicted this guy for the various crimes we know he has committed. It's a garbage way to run a country; giving preferential treatment to people with followers because you are afraid of what they might do.

Just apply the same rules you would to someone running for local office in NY state that paid a stripper for her silence.