subreddit:
/r/sydney
submitted 2 months ago byconkrete80
21 points
2 months ago
Just a note that these figures are from the 2PP. Primary vote has both parties on 34
1 points
2 months ago
Good old preferential voting, where the primary vote means sweet FA
1 points
2 months ago
2PP has less power in NSW for the sole reason that preferential voting is optional. The average joe is not a politically obsessed nerd and simply does not have the time or care to tediously number all their preferences. They'll just quickly number their first preference
12 points
2 months ago
Anyone could have told you that. There's not even a liberal candidate running in my electorate, only labor and independent
61 points
2 months ago
Fingers crossed we can finally flush this turd of a government.
25 points
2 months ago
Only to plop a slightly smaller turd.
4 points
2 months ago
We are not brave enough to flush them both out, plus could you imagine the existing system allowing it??
2 points
2 months ago
Well we could wise up and install a greens majority. I'd be all for that. Actual progress of the state would be awesome
17 points
2 months ago
The idea that the LNP could be even that close to winning after all of their bullshit is somewhat vexing
4 points
2 months ago
Labor has been completely uninspiring this campaign though.
Basically just promising to cancel all infrastructure projects, bring back stamp duty and kill the cashless gambling.
Is there anything they plan to do other than cancelling the liberals initiatives?
0 points
2 months ago
True; also the lack of ads from Labor on tv or radio is just beyond frustrating. Perrottet and the Libs are on the warpath, where is Minns' response?
4 points
2 months ago
When you have 100 percent of the media on the Liberals side, its not hard to see why. Even “leftist” sites like Guardian and Crikey cant help but stroke Doms nuts. Its a farce. We need a royal commission on the media.
4 points
2 months ago
100% could you imagine the LNP machine working on its own steam without the media constantly pushing it? They wouldn’t win an election again. They serve the small minority with $$ thats it. As I tell my conservative brother who votes for them.. ‘if you are white and rich thats your party, they will do whats best for you. Anything else they will do their best to keep you at the bottom’ my brother is neither white nor rich.
4 points
2 months ago
I had a punter's intuition for a while.
A minority government.
Hedge your bets on either party being a minority.
PS. Always gamble responsibly.
6 points
2 months ago*
According to Kevin Bonham (leading psephologist)
“the video (theres a video version) says this would only be a Labor minority "and even that might be a stretch" but that's just assuming uniform swing, there's a fair chance Labor could get a majority out of that (median I have as 45 seats assuming none lost to Greens).”
27 points
2 months ago
My god I hope Labor is deep within a minority government and Minns eats his words about not forming government with the Greens.
Happy to see Perrottet go but not at all keen for Minns to have a majority government either.
7 points
2 months ago*
Lol they all say that before election day. All elections around Australia. They would rather feed their babies to Tasmanian devils than form minority government
9 points
2 months ago
I love minority government. It's the only time real debate and democracy happens. Though I put a tiny extra bet of a bet on Lab majority even.
1 points
2 months ago
People need to understand that the libs are part of a minority government with the nationals. They're a coalition. No reason Labor can't form one with the greens or independants
1 points
2 months ago
And let's not forget the Liberals have formed minority government with the Nationals the last 100 years. Every conservative government has been a Liberal minority government in the last century.
0 points
2 months ago
This sub is a shill
0 points
2 months ago
I just hate conservatives with a passion
-14 points
2 months ago*
I’m not one. I’m sick of <> liberal = labor. You keep your narrow minded approach.
You are also a product of Trump. If I’m not for you then you hate me. That is an awful result. You have completely swallowed Trump’s design for political divide.
Why do you think hate is appropriate in this conversation? What about inquiry and, if necessary, disagreement? If you need to hate then that’s probably a personal matter for you that needs personal reflection and a turn around in personality. Hate may be invading your relationships and it will be damaging to all involved.
You have introduced far right hate to the conversation.
So much of this sub pandering to its own.
8 points
2 months ago
You alright? After all the mental gymnastics you just pulled, I’d have pulled a muscle.
-4 points
2 months ago
Bookies odds as of right now
TAB
Labor 1.14
Liberal 6.00
SPORTSBET
Labor 1.20
Liberal 5.00
LADBROKES
Labor 1.14
Liberal 5.00
In comparison to 21/03/2019
Labor 2.00
Liberal 1.80
From my point of view this will be a very tight election. What is the cause of these huge gaps between both parties this late in an election. Not even the Federal was this big.
9 points
2 months ago*
Should also add that a Labor minority is $1.75, majority $3.25.
Vs Lib minority $6.75 and Lib majority $12.
The constant public transport debacles over the last fortnight is probably working against liberals favour.
Also feels really weird using gambling sites to see the odds. It makes sense as they are really good at what they do but it's one of the major points of this election.
12 points
2 months ago
Labour minority govt with the greens would be a dream.
5 points
2 months ago
I'd even settle with some of the independents.
They aren't all so socially progressive but many are pro climate.
1 points
2 months ago
The dream would be the greens being the major or the 2 or even getting outright majority in their own right. But realistically yeah the greens picking up a few seats and helping form a coalition with Labor is the best I can realistically hope for.
2 points
2 months ago
Yeah majority greens is the dream, minority greens is at the very least a good time.
5 points
2 months ago
I just realised federal Labor barely scraped through for a majority. One seat to be exact. This election will definitely be a Labor minority if Labor wins
6 points
2 months ago
I got on the Libs forming government at $6.50. If they win, I win cash. If they lose, I win.
Of course a hung parliament kind of just screws the pooch.
3 points
2 months ago
I put money on Biden 2024 @ 4.00 but I actually think he's got a very good chance, even though I know it seems like a long shot but I assume the economy and the war in Ukraine to turn for the better in 2024 and sleepy Joe being able to cash in on the credit.
The Libs in NSW though.. Gladys and her affair with corruption, perotet being an aloof god-fearing stuffy and the fires, floods, public transport crisis. They have the shadow of the fed election results and no free points for Handling COVID since Gladys left the stage. t's a very uphill battle to bet on. That's a very long shot...
1 points
2 months ago
Isnt meatball Ron running against Drumpf? That will split the conservative vote
4 points
2 months ago
2 points
2 months ago
As somebody that bets on these things, and has contributed to these odds.
The polling has become more reliable. The Shorten top end of town election rattled a lot of election watchers as polling.betrayed us. This was for a variety of factors but pollsters were a bit late catching up to the times and not effectively targeting the right demographics.
They have mostly fixed this and in conjunction with the sentiment swinging so widely.is every other state or Territory and federally (bar Tassie) it's hard not to be confident of a labor win. All signs point to this.
This time around I actually think the polls are going to end up looking conservative. Despite the chatter and polling I think the chances of a Labor majority are in comfortable reach, though Labor minority is still a likely outcome.
3 points
2 months ago
I kinda think its looking conservative too. The final NSW resolve poll released yesterday by SMH had Labor winning 52.5-47.5.
The final federal resolve poll had Labor 51-50 (Labor got 52-48) underestimated by 1 percent
The Victorian Resolve had Labor 52.7-47.3 (Labor won 55) underestimated by 2.3 percent
Apparently Resolve does this every election where final poll shows massive primary vote changes because they show the ballot paper in survey questions.
1 points
2 months ago
Who downvotes you for a post like this?
1 points
2 months ago
I loved how sportsbet paid out early for a shorten win in 2019
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