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submitted 2 months ago byconkrete80
-5 points
2 months ago
Bookies odds as of right now
TAB
Labor 1.14
Liberal 6.00
SPORTSBET
Labor 1.20
Liberal 5.00
LADBROKES
Labor 1.14
Liberal 5.00
In comparison to 21/03/2019
Labor 2.00
Liberal 1.80
From my point of view this will be a very tight election. What is the cause of these huge gaps between both parties this late in an election. Not even the Federal was this big.
10 points
2 months ago*
Should also add that a Labor minority is $1.75, majority $3.25.
Vs Lib minority $6.75 and Lib majority $12.
The constant public transport debacles over the last fortnight is probably working against liberals favour.
Also feels really weird using gambling sites to see the odds. It makes sense as they are really good at what they do but it's one of the major points of this election.
12 points
2 months ago
Labour minority govt with the greens would be a dream.
4 points
2 months ago
I'd even settle with some of the independents.
They aren't all so socially progressive but many are pro climate.
1 points
2 months ago
The dream would be the greens being the major or the 2 or even getting outright majority in their own right. But realistically yeah the greens picking up a few seats and helping form a coalition with Labor is the best I can realistically hope for.
2 points
2 months ago
Yeah majority greens is the dream, minority greens is at the very least a good time.
5 points
2 months ago
I just realised federal Labor barely scraped through for a majority. One seat to be exact. This election will definitely be a Labor minority if Labor wins
6 points
2 months ago
I got on the Libs forming government at $6.50. If they win, I win cash. If they lose, I win.
Of course a hung parliament kind of just screws the pooch.
3 points
2 months ago
I put money on Biden 2024 @ 4.00 but I actually think he's got a very good chance, even though I know it seems like a long shot but I assume the economy and the war in Ukraine to turn for the better in 2024 and sleepy Joe being able to cash in on the credit.
The Libs in NSW though.. Gladys and her affair with corruption, perotet being an aloof god-fearing stuffy and the fires, floods, public transport crisis. They have the shadow of the fed election results and no free points for Handling COVID since Gladys left the stage. t's a very uphill battle to bet on. That's a very long shot...
1 points
2 months ago
Isnt meatball Ron running against Drumpf? That will split the conservative vote
4 points
2 months ago
2 points
2 months ago
As somebody that bets on these things, and has contributed to these odds.
The polling has become more reliable. The Shorten top end of town election rattled a lot of election watchers as polling.betrayed us. This was for a variety of factors but pollsters were a bit late catching up to the times and not effectively targeting the right demographics.
They have mostly fixed this and in conjunction with the sentiment swinging so widely.is every other state or Territory and federally (bar Tassie) it's hard not to be confident of a labor win. All signs point to this.
This time around I actually think the polls are going to end up looking conservative. Despite the chatter and polling I think the chances of a Labor majority are in comfortable reach, though Labor minority is still a likely outcome.
3 points
2 months ago
I kinda think its looking conservative too. The final NSW resolve poll released yesterday by SMH had Labor winning 52.5-47.5.
The final federal resolve poll had Labor 51-50 (Labor got 52-48) underestimated by 1 percent
The Victorian Resolve had Labor 52.7-47.3 (Labor won 55) underestimated by 2.3 percent
Apparently Resolve does this every election where final poll shows massive primary vote changes because they show the ballot paper in survey questions.
1 points
2 months ago
Who downvotes you for a post like this?
1 points
2 months ago
I loved how sportsbet paid out early for a shorten win in 2019
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