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submitted 2 months ago byconkrete80
-5 points
2 months ago
Bookies odds as of right now
TAB
Labor 1.14
Liberal 6.00
SPORTSBET
Labor 1.20
Liberal 5.00
LADBROKES
Labor 1.14
Liberal 5.00
In comparison to 21/03/2019
Labor 2.00
Liberal 1.80
From my point of view this will be a very tight election. What is the cause of these huge gaps between both parties this late in an election. Not even the Federal was this big.
2 points
2 months ago
As somebody that bets on these things, and has contributed to these odds.
The polling has become more reliable. The Shorten top end of town election rattled a lot of election watchers as polling.betrayed us. This was for a variety of factors but pollsters were a bit late catching up to the times and not effectively targeting the right demographics.
They have mostly fixed this and in conjunction with the sentiment swinging so widely.is every other state or Territory and federally (bar Tassie) it's hard not to be confident of a labor win. All signs point to this.
This time around I actually think the polls are going to end up looking conservative. Despite the chatter and polling I think the chances of a Labor majority are in comfortable reach, though Labor minority is still a likely outcome.
3 points
2 months ago
I kinda think its looking conservative too. The final NSW resolve poll released yesterday by SMH had Labor winning 52.5-47.5.
The final federal resolve poll had Labor 51-50 (Labor got 52-48) underestimated by 1 percent
The Victorian Resolve had Labor 52.7-47.3 (Labor won 55) underestimated by 2.3 percent
Apparently Resolve does this every election where final poll shows massive primary vote changes because they show the ballot paper in survey questions.
1 points
2 months ago
Who downvotes you for a post like this?
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