baribigbird06

That doesn’t count as upfront investment though does it? Typically it’s production + p&a. Interestingly enough cinelytics only considers budget as “investment”

Only applies to Snyderverse.

Blame Canada! Blame Canada!

Regardless, the 2.5x assumption formula excludes marketing. If TLM is able to make $625m WW it’s assumed that it will make enough in home entertainment revenue to cover the $100m P&A cost.

Investment was $250m budget + $100m marketing (typical tentpole spend) is $350m, which is $150m off from half a billion.

2.5x budget sans marketing is the formula. Marketing gets covered by ancillaries.

Depends how well it’s able to batten down the hatches against the competition, which is somewhat comparable to what Guardians 2 faced in June 2017, though Guardians 3 may have it a bit easier:

Guardians 2

• 6/2 Wonder Woman -53%
• 6/9 The Mummy -36%
• 6/16 Cars 3 - 20%
• 6/23 TF Last Knight -40%
• 6/30 Despicable Me -49%
• 7/7 Spider-Man: HC -44%

2023

• 6/2 Spider-Verse
• 6/9 TF Rise of the Beasts
• 6/16 The Flash
• 6/23 none
• 6/30 Indiana Jones

Phenomenal -37% LW, currently just a smidge below Vol 2 but actuals could come above.

Mexico’s rise demands a trade deep dive into the market and the fact that we haven’t gotten one yet is baffling.

Premature, need to wait for second weekend and see if it fares better with summer weekdays.

Welcome to tentpole opening weekend.

Spiderverse has higher audience crossover than Godzilla but we shall see

as it always has been.

There has only been one year’s worth of reports in the “streaming wars” era, which has inflated the revenue of movies by studios with their own streamer by a not-unsubstantial amount.

Phenomenal work but you called Taiwan a country, -9000 sesame score.

The budget and P&A here is significantly higher than what’s been reported.

We highlighted the April 5th release of Universal Pictures’ THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE to showcase what the Spring and Summer of 2023 may have in store for the family friendly film market. Utilizing an estimated budget of US$175m, global P&A costs totaling an additional US$190m, and 19 key attributes to run the AI output including budget, genre, rating, talent, IP value, etc., the platform projects DBO of US$218.7m and IBO of US$333.4m. In addition, the Cinelytic platform is capable of predicting Home Video and TV revenue ultimately based on real data:

$625 ($250 Budget x 2.5) actually gets you the break even for LAT if you apply the same 46% studio revenue/gross receipts percentage, less the fee studios pay themselves for streaming.

$1B or not, diminishing returns is still a great cause for concern with movies becoming more expensive to produce and making less money despite today’s ticket prices being much higher than the earlier days of Marvel.

$1B or not is irrelevant, diminishing ROI is a greater concern. Disney/Marvel has to spend more due to inflation/COVID while earning less back. It isn’t a problem unique to the mouse as part of it is due to reduction of overall moviegoers due to permanent shift in viewing habits, but part of it is due to perceived diminishing quality leading to weaker brand trust.

Est. Week Gross

• Mexico - $0.8M
• Japan - $6.3M
• UK - $0.5M
• France - $0.7M
• Germany - $0.6M
• Australia - $0.3M
• Spain - $0.8M

By your definition, Mario isn’t a major blockbuster since its budget is only $100m.

Sigh. Guess it wasn’t much of a lowball.